trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 05 | $12 | +$2 | +17% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 13 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Apr 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? | Mar 03 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Hersonissos: Alex Rybakov vs Jacopo Berrettini | Mar 03 | $103 | +$103 | +100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 | Feb 26 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +16.7% | +5.6% | 100% | 100% | +5.6% |
| ≤90d | 14 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 93% | 7% | -4.4% |
| all | 17 | +7.1% | -3.1% | 94% | 12% | +57.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.1% | 12% | +57.3% |
| 10% | -12.4% | 6% | +42.3% |
| 15% | -20.9% | 6% | +28.5% |
| 20% | -28.6% | 6% | +15.9% |