Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B2 0xb2f3…484e crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+3%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate96%68W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$55
14 days+$17
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$57
other 13% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 22% -3.4%
≤30d 40 +3.4% -6.5% 98% 15% -7.2%
≤90d 71 +1.4% -8.3% 96% 15% -7.6%
all 71 +1.4% -8.3% 96% 15% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 15% -7.6%
10% -17.1% 3% -16.4%
15% -25.1% 0% -24.5%
20% -32.4% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$41 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses68 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage48d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $99 +$9 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $95 +$4 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $90 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $86 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $76 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $72 +$4 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $64 +$8 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $58 +$7 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $55 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$2 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $51 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $48 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$9 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$3 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $101 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$8 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$7 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$2 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$4 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $102 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 05 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $101 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $101 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 31 $110 +$9 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 30 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $73 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $61 +$3 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 28 $40 +$2 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 27 $101 +$3 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET May 26 $120 +$7 +6%
BNB Up or Down - May 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 25 $105 +$15 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $34 +$3 +8%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 14 $12 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 14 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 14 $11 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 14 $11 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 14 $10 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $99 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $90 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $86 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $76 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $72 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $64 8d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $58 9d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $57 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $55 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $52 9d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $48 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $39 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $39 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $35 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $102 10d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $101 10d
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 11d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $101 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 13d
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $101 14d
BNB Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $101 16d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $102 16d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 17d
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records