Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb2f6…a1b1 sports 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate72%162W / 62L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$7
other 28% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.2% -9.3% 57% 57% -10.3%
≤30d 151 +3.5% -6.4% 72% 72% -6.6%
≤90d 224 +1.6% -8.1% 72% 71% -8.1%
all 224 +1.6% -8.1% 72% 71% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 71% -8.1%
10% -16.9% 37% -16.9%
15% -24.9% 0% -24.9%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses162 / 62
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)224 / 233
History coverage66d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 224 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 87¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 77¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5) Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 66¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $1 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $1 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1 22h
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $1 27h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $1 27h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $1 28h
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 77¢ $1 28h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $1 28h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $1 28h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $1 28h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 83¢ $1 28h
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $1 28h
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 82¢ $1 28h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL No 79¢ $1 28h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 78¢ $1 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? SELL No 100¢ $1 34h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $1 34h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $1 34h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL No 77¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY No 84¢ $1 47h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 78¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 86¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.87 · official $8.87 · 473 history records