Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B2 0xb2f9…eb15 sports 706 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,274 (+7%) realized +$2,274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%288W / 417L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$154
14 days−$169
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$514
politics 25% +$452
other 13% +$1,422
world 11% −$112
crypto 3% +$161
economics 2% −$162
tech 2% −$33
culture 0% −$66
finance 0% +$90
weather 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +10.6% +0.1% 53% 47% -1.9%
≤30d 115 +0.5% -9.1% 51% 47% -7.3%
≤90d 330 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 42% -10.5%
all 705 +7.4% -2.8% 41% 37% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 37% -3.3%
10% -12.1% 36% -12.6%
15% -20.6% 35% -21.0%
20% -28.4% 33% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$34 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$2,274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses288 / 417
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions1
Markets (closed)705 / 706
History coverage592d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 705 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Naomi Osaka 52¢ 52¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $50 +$50 +101%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae Jun 23 $50 +$1 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $49 −$1 -2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $73 −$72 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $74 +$49 +66%
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Kyrgios Jun 22 $75 −$1 -2%
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) Jun 22 $50 +$75 +150%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$1 -2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $62 +$44 +71%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Dart/Lumsden vs Aoyama/Chan Jun 21 $14 +$14 +100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $53 +$47 +88%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $50 +$53 +107%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $55 +$45 +82%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $49 +$51 +102%
Altmaier vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $35 +$18 +52%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$48 +94%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Hunter/McNally vs Dart/Lumsden Jun 18 $49 +$86 +175%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $31 +$45 +144%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin Jun 17 $15 +$16 +104%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Yastremska vs Maria Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs Fery Jun 17 $51 +$1 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $51 +$14 +28%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $51 +$50 +99%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $50 +$70 +141%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$50 +102%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$50 +102%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $61 +$38 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $50 +$50 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens BUY Naomi Osaka 52¢ $52 39m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 62¢ $51 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic SELL Aleksandar Vukic 46¢ $5 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic SELL Aleksandar Vukic 43¢ $34 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic SELL Aleksandar Vukic 43¢ $7 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic SELL Aleksandar Vukic 43¢ $2 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anouk Koevermans vs Mananchaya Sawangkae BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 60¢ $50 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Aleksandar Vukic 44¢ $49 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 49¢ $50 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $73 20h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Adam Walton 86¢ $123 21h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 51¢ $74 21h
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Kyrgios SELL Kyrgios 53¢ $53 21h
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Kyrgios SELL Kyrgios 53¢ $21 21h
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Kyrgios BUY Kyrgios 54¢ $1 21h
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Kyrgios BUY Kyrgios 54¢ $26 21h
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Kyrgios BUY Kyrgios 54¢ $48 21h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) SELL Sierra 100¢ $99 23h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) SELL Sierra 100¢ $26 23h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) BUY Sierra 40¢ $33 24h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) BUY Sierra 40¢ $3 24h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) BUY Sierra 40¢ $13 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 38¢ $51 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $52 41h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $56 41h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 58¢ $62 45h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Dart/Lumsden vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Dart/Lumsden 50¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Dart/Lumsden vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Dart/Lumsden 50¢ $1 2d
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Dart/Lumsden vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Dart/Lumsden 50¢ $12 2d
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 50¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.50 · official $52.50 (match) · 2636 history records