Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb2fb…1c4a sports 136 markets active 8h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$707 (+8%) realized +$707 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%63W / 73L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$372
14 days+$382
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$864
crypto 4% −$218
other 1% −$51
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -20.2% -27.8% 44% 42% -0.4%
≤30d 136 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 46% -3.1%
≤90d 136 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 46% -3.1%
all 136 -13.0% -21.3% 46% 46% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 46% -3.1%
10% -28.8% 43% -12.4%
15% -35.7% 41% -20.9%
20% -42.0% 35% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$36 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$707
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses63 / 73
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)136 / 136
History coverage26d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 136 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $152 +$94 +62%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$104 -82%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 16 $91 +$85 +93%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 16 $190 +$151 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $119 +$72 +60%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $101 +$72 +71%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $173 +$94 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$20 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$19 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $101 +$63 +63%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $186 +$60 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 +$27 +105%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $161 +$171 +106%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $115 +$63 +54%
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $75 +$38 +51%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $61 +$82 +134%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$4 -7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $110 +$77 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $57 −$57 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $101 −$29 -29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $30 +$22 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$24 +93%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $25 −$1 -5%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $156 +$68 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY K27 37¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 52¢ $18 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 17¢ $10 16h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $152 17h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY Yes 34¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 18h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag SELL Geekay Esports 100¢ $176 19h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Geekay Esports 51¢ $91 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 53¢ $61 22h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $341 23h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $190 24h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $191 24h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 62¢ $119 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 13¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 28¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 45¢ $102 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 16¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 75¢ $15 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 62¢ $25 27h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 39¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $42 27h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $173 28h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 58¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $267 29h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 64¢ $173 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 316 history records