Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B2 0xb2fd…a7d8 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate32%8W / 17L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$668per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$45
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-71.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.2% -39.6% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 -55.5% -59.7% 44% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -67.9% -71.0% 32% 0% -9.8%
all 25 -67.9% -71.0% 32% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -73.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -76.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -78.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,036) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -92% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses8 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage40d
Avg bet$668
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,036 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,033 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 7? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? Jun 07 $2,211 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,207 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 5? Jun 06 $2,203 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,199 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,195 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,191 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28? May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Solana reach $95 on May 26? May 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 18? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 16? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 16? May 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,036 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,033 14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 16d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $5 16d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18d
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 18d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,211 19d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,207 19d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,203 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,199 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $2,195 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,191 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 31? BUY No 0¢ $4 25d
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 28d
Will Solana reach $95 on May 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 32d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 33d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 36d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 38d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 16? BUY No 0¢ $2 40d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 40d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.23 · official $5.23 (match) · 39 history records