Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
B2 0xb2fe…a06a other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$3,525 (+13%) realized +$3,513 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate64%52W / 29L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$1,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$707
7 days+$1,095
14 days+$1,034
30 days+$1,280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$2,298
sports 35% +$382
world 2% +$609
crypto 0% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +90.0% +71.9% 60% 60% +8.4%
≤30d 29 +53.3% +38.7% 62% 59% +2.9%
≤90d 81 +28.5% +16.3% 64% 59% +2.6%
all 81 +28.5% +16.3% 64% 59% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 59% +2.6%
10% +5.1% 53% -7.3%
15% -5.0% 41% -16.2%
20% -14.3% 31% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$204 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$1,868
Realized+$3,513
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses52 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage58d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 93¢ $730 $743 +$13 (+2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $410 $410 +$0 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $346 $342 −$4 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $262 $267 +$5 (+2%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $107 $105 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $871 +$983 +113%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,004 −$983 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $354 +$1,030 +291%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $294 −$289 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $535 +$609 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $138 +$201 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 +$416 +982%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $107 −$105 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,303 −$1,292 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $175 +$226 +129%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $119 +$22 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $306 +$410 +134%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $137 −$136 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $156 +$38 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $28 +$71 +250%
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,976 +$51 +3%
Will CD Real Tomayapo win on 2026-05-12? Jun 02 $106 −$11 -11%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $117 −$116 -99%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $43 +$23 +55%
Will CA Paranaense vs. Mirassol FC end in a draw? May 31 $156 +$56 +36%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $241 −$238 -99%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $195 −$38 -20%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $71 +$46 +65%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $59 +$47 +79%
Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $311 +$106 +34%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $354 +$103 +29%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $256 +$146 +57%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $84 +$20 +24%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $376 −$372 -99%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $146 +$52 +36%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $111 +$88 +79%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $94 −$92 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $61 +$14 +23%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $140 +$70 +50%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $116 +$85 +73%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $69 −$68 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $325 +$65 +20%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $102 +$66 +65%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $29 +$62 +216%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-07? May 08 $97 +$14 +14%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $203 −$200 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $720 +$86 +12%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $333 +$67 +20%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $1,024 +$406 +40%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes May 05 $139 +$60 +44%
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 05 $93 +$361 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $352 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $110 5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $411 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $9 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $446 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $4 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $75 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $13 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $9 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $314 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $472 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $532 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 21h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $268 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $354 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $294 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 46¢ $535 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $42 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $107 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $138 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $81 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $713 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $509 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $175 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $137 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $306 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $62 7d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $156 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $119 12d
Will Guam win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 97¢ $1,976 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,867.64 · official $1,867.64 (match) · 183 history records