Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B2 0xb2ff…b050 other 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$215 (+7%) realized +$155 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%25W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$265
other 41% +$40
world 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +8.8% -1.6% 27% 27% -4.4%
≤30d 94 +8.8% -1.6% 27% 27% -4.4%
≤90d 94 +8.8% -1.6% 27% 27% -4.4%
all 94 +8.8% -1.6% 27% 27% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 27% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.0% 27% -13.6%
15% -19.6% 26% -21.9%
20% -27.5% 23% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$17 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses25 / 69
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions17
Markets (closed)94 / 112
History coverage5d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 90¢ $100 $159 +$59 (+59%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 11¢ 70¢ $10 $64 +$54 (+536%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? No 52¢ 100¢ $12 $23 +$11 (+91%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$40 +79%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 +$81 +784%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$28 +55%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 +$49 +474%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $10 +$67 +649%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $51 +$27 +54%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sau Jun 27 $12 +$34 +285%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$21 +105%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 +$39 +76%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$57 +57%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $6 +$208 +3370%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 +$55 +55%
Exact Score: Paraguay 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $14 −$14 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $199 +$67 +34%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $76 +$41 +54%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $76 −$75 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 +$54 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 52¢ $12 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 2h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 2h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 4h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 23h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $78 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sau SELL 98¢ $46 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.64 · official $316.64 (match) · 150 history records