Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb308…02f4 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$292 (-14%) realized −$292 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$209
7 days−$154
14 days−$305
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$189
tech 7% −$141
politics 5% −$3
other 5% −$44
economics 1% −$8
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -34.6% -40.8% 21% 18% -18.0%
≤30d 84 -31.5% -38.0% 30% 21% -25.5%
≤90d 84 -31.5% -38.0% 30% 21% -25.5%
all 84 -31.5% -38.0% 30% 21% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 21% -25.5%
10% -43.9% 17% -32.6%
15% -49.3% 14% -39.2%
20% -54.3% 12% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$292
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage17d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $206 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $204 +$190 +93%
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$19 -90%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET Jun 23 $201 −$5 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$1 -1%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 22 $41 −$3 -6%
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? Jun 22 $15 −$11 -71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET Jun 22 $54 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$10 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 −$22 -42%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$8 -40%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $45 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 22 $11 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on June 21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $394 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $99 25h
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $102 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $99 28h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 28h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $39 37h
Will "Avengers: Doomsday" make it into the IMDb Top 250? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $51 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records