Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb308…8695 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$152 (-11%) realized −$153 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day75.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$153
sports 1% +$1
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 37% -22.6%
≤30d 19 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 37% -22.6%
≤90d 19 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 37% -22.6%
all 19 -3.5% -12.7% 68% 37% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 37% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 16% -30.0%
15% -28.6% 5% -36.8%
20% -35.6% 5% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$40 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day75.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $130 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $155 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $83 −$22 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $236 −$20 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $109 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $207 −$92 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $25 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $117 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $127 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $127 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $28 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $104 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 17m
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $12 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $29 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.66 · official $21.66 (match) · 75 history records