Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb308…23a6 sports 775 markets active 4d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,207 (-5%) realized −$1,207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%364W / 411L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$443est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$469
14 days−$768
30 days−$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,313
other 2% −$204
politics 0% −$18
world 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -26.2% -33.2% 38% 36% -31.0%
≤30d 197 -16.2% -24.2% 46% 42% -20.4%
≤90d 775 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 43% -15.0%
all 775 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 43% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 43% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 40% -23.1%
15% -31.7% 34% -30.5%
20% -38.4% 25% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses364 / 411
Est. fees paid−$443
Open positions0
Markets (closed)775 / 775
History coverage63d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 775 Trades
no open positions (177 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $98 −$96 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $158 +$33 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$3 +18%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $11 −$10 -93%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $61 −$45 -73%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$13 -54%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $38 −$38 -99%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $22 −$22 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $34 +$19 +56%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $27 +$6 +23%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $26 +$9 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $79 −$19 -24%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $131 −$38 -29%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $35 −$10 -30%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Win Jun 11 $14 −$12 -87%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $25 +$10 +38%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $16 −$1 -6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Win Jun 11 $15 +$8 +53%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $49 +$16 +34%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$6 +32%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $39 −$14 -37%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $6 +$3 +54%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $34 −$34 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $19 +$7 +38%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +55%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $20 −$7 -36%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $10 +$8 +82%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $136 +$2 +1%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $128 −$7 -6%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $167 −$64 -38%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $35 −$9 -26%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$10 +99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $18 +$15 +81%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $25 −$17 -68%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $15 −$11 -76%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters G Jun 10 $51 −$5 -10%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $19 −$16 -80%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $28 −$27 -96%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $71 +$13 +18%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 10 $20 +$33 +162%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $32 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 54¢ $98 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 99¢ $56 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 76¢ $20 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Team Heretics Academy 46¢ $29 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 56¢ $17 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 57¢ $6 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 65¢ $35 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 30¢ $17 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 26¢ $15 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Team Heretics Academy 74¢ $90 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 43¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 95¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 80¢ $17 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL FUT Esports 6¢ $1 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa SELL South Africa 5¢ $16 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 80¢ $11 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 27¢ $11 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $24 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 54¢ $18 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 64¢ $18 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY Karmine Corp Blue 72¢ $38 4d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 56¢ $44 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 18¢ $36 4d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa BUY South Africa 17¢ $26 4d
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 43¢ $14 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 51¢ $22 5d
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+2.5) BUY T1 14¢ $15 5d
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY Galions 63¢ $34 5d
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Anubis Gaming 100¢ $33 5d
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Anubis Gaming 81¢ $27 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1993 history records