Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb30d…7aa9 sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$97 (+8%) realized +$101 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%36W / 36L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$4
14 days+$29
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$55
sports 23% +$79
crypto 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.6% -10.1% 49% 46% -9.8%
≤30d 72 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 47% -6.6%
≤90d 72 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 47% -6.6%
all 72 +6.3% -3.8% 50% 47% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 47% -6.6%
10% -13.0% 36% -15.6%
15% -21.4% 29% -23.7%
20% -29.1% 28% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$101
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses36 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)72 / 79
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 78¢ 78¢ $117 $116 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 61¢ 58¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 59¢ 55¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 56¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 −$12 -79%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $5 −$2 -34%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $30 +$21 +70%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $5 +$5 +101%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $5 $0 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +70%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 +$4 +76%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $15 +$45 +291%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 −$16 -51%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $5 −$3 -53%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$3 +17%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 +$11 +206%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $6 +$2 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$6 -59%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $41 +$22 +52%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $15 +$9 +57%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $5 +$3 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $86 +$15 +18%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$3 +32%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 +$3 +12%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $3 −$2 -62%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $54 +$17 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 $0 -3%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $57 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 54¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $3 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $5 3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $6 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $5 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 26h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 26h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $20 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 26h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 26h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 36h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $5 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 41h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 41h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 47h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $2 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $8 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 2d
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.49 · official $208.56 (match) · 176 history records