Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

B3 0xb30d…c747 world 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip

Net edge-17%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$436per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-10.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-0.5%	-10.0%	25%	0%	-10.0%
≤30d	4	-0.5%	-10.0%	25%	0%	-10.0%
≤90d	4	-0.5%	-10.0%	25%	0%	-10.0%
all	4	-0.5%	-10.0%	25%	0%	-10.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-10.0%	0%	-10.0%
10%	-18.6%	0%	-18.6%
15%	-26.4%	0%	-26.4%
20%	-33.7%	0%	-33.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.24 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$436

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Jun 18	$427	+$3	+1%
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Jun 18	$436	$0	+0%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?	Jun 17	$438	−$2	-0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?	Jun 17	$442	−$10	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$107	1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$323	1h
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$427	3h
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$436	3h
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$436	4h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?	SELL No	91¢	$437	22h
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?	BUY No	91¢	$438	24h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?	SELL No	90¢	$432	24h
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31?	BUY No	92¢	$442	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records