Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B3 0xb30d…7a5c sports 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$31 (-6%) realized −$30 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip

Net edge+11%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%10W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+15.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+27.6%	+15.5%	42%	42%	-16.8%
≤30d	24	+27.6%	+15.5%	42%	42%	-16.8%
≤90d	24	+27.6%	+15.5%	42%	42%	-16.8%
all	24	+27.6%	+15.5%	42%	42%	-16.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.5%	42%	-16.8%
10%	+4.4%	42%	-24.7%
15%	-5.7%	38%	-32.0%
20%	-14.9%	38%	-38.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +28% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late +32% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$21 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.87 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$64

Realized−$30

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses10 / 14

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)24 / 27

History coverage7d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$2	+$7	+325%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$5	+$6	+114%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 16	$7	−$7	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$35	+$10	+29%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$21	+$123	+599%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$20	−$12	-59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$41	−$30	-73%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 15	$5	−$4	-79%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	Jun 15	$25	−$18	-72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$8	−$8	-100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$15	+$16	+105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$30	+$26	+86%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	−$101	-100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$48	−$48	-100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	+$14	+276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$18	+$20	+114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$16	+158%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$10	+$14	+140%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$5	52m
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	53m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	1h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5	BUY Over	23¢	$2	23h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$2	23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	54¢	$5	24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$5	24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$143	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5	BUY Under	77¢	$35	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	25¢	$8	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	SELL Over	13¢	$11	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	SELL Spain	5¢	$1	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	11¢	$7	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	23¢	$5	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	37¢	$25	2d
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Spain	22¢	$5	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	38¢	$5	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	59¢	$20	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5	BUY Over	46¢	$41	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	39¢	$2	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$30	3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$15	4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5	BUY Under	69¢	$15	4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$8	4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$15	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$101	5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5	BUY Under	58¢	$48	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.92 · official $63.92 (match) · 55 history records