Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
B3 0xb30f…e941 crypto 62 markets active 5d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+8%) realized +$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%40W / 21L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +4.0% -5.9% 65% 60% -7.4%
≤30d 61 +5.1% -4.9% 66% 61% -6.2%
≤90d 61 +5.1% -4.9% 66% 61% -6.2%
all 61 +5.1% -4.9% 66% 61% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 61% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 52% -15.2%
15% -22.3% 41% -23.4%
20% -29.9% 33% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses40 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.43 · official $2.43 (match) · 152 history records