Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb311…a72d sports 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$566 (-7%) realized −$599 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%81W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days−$6
14 days+$24
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$460
crypto 1% +$39
other 1% −$19
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -4.2% -13.3% 45% 45% -9.1%
≤30d 69 -5.1% -14.1% 42% 42% -15.2%
≤90d 107 -7.4% -16.2% 44% 44% -14.6%
all 180 -4.3% -13.5% 45% 45% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 45% -15.0%
10% -21.7% 44% -23.1%
15% -29.3% 43% -30.6%
20% -36.2% 33% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$36 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$599
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses81 / 99
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)180 / 182
History coverage110d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) 9z 54¢ 100¢ $25 $46 +$21 (+85%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner FURIA 45¢ 100¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+121%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $25 +$21 +83%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$19 +64%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $31 +$40 +131%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $41 +$67 +165%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$72 +469%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$15 -51%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 +$25 +124%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 −$29 -72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$12 +59%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$17 +55%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $8 −$3 -39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$22 +108%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $15 +$16 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $3 +$25 +796%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $20 +$23 +114%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $20 +$19 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 45¢ $10 46m
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $25 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $20 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 60¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 62¢ $25 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 71¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $20 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $33 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 58¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 67¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 60¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 49¢ $10 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 48¢ $20 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 51¢ $30 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $108 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $41 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $30 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 17¢ $15 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 57¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 42¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.38 · official $65.05 · 289 history records