Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:41:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B3 0xb315…3e42 crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$209 (-1%) realized −$208 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%68W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$372per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$71
crypto 26% −$175
sports 11% +$34
other 5% +$1
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 1 +1.2% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 73 -3.5% -12.7% 93% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$69 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses68 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage225d
Avg bet$372
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 21 $252 +$3 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $243 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 23 $236 +$3 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Apr 11 $281 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $116 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Mar 18 $123 −$122 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 10? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 11 $3,002 +$34 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 11 $5,956 +$12 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 08 $184 +$2 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 06 $1,137 +$3 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 04 $3,812 +$17 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 02 $550 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 02 $548 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $638 +$4 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $257 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 24 $127 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $257 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $294 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $249 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $124 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $127 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 10 $124 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $253 −$2 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $256 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $256 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $256 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 07 $214 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 12 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $51 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 6? Jan 08 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 5? Jan 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 2? Jan 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $101 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 20 $738 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $221 −$211 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $221 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 7? Dec 07 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 6? Dec 07 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 5? Dec 06 $217 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $125 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $129 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $118 26d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $128 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $127 34d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $126 34d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $87 46d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 46d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $116 53d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $116 58d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $124 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $122 67d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 70d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $77 70d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $24 83d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $97 83d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $77 84d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 84d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 88¢ $5 92d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $116 92d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 88¢ $5 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 88¢ $5 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 88¢ $100 93d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 87¢ $113 102d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? SELL No 95¢ $617 102d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? BUY No 95¢ $616 102d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 95¢ $295 102d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 95¢ $5 102d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 95¢ $14 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.00 · official $123.00 (match) · 368 history records