Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb315…d401 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-14%) realized −$65 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$70
sports 37% +$20
other 8% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -5.6% -14.5% 39% 34% +1.7%
≤30d 41 -5.6% -14.5% 39% 34% +1.7%
≤90d 50 -18.5% -26.2% 34% 30% -25.6%
all 60 -17.5% -25.4% 37% 33% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 33% -30.2%
10% -32.5% 28% -36.8%
15% -39.0% 25% -42.9%
20% -45.0% 25% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 63
History coverage100d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$56 +775%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$7 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $11 −$10 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $13 −$5 -39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gr Mar 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 23 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro Mar 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 4¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $5 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY 28¢ $5 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 12h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 20h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 30h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 31h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 12¢ $3 33h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 26¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 38¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 38¢ $1 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 13¢ $3 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $5 34h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $5 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 32¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 11¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 10¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 8¢ $2 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.62 · official $7.62 (match) · 149 history records