Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb319…4a75 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-11%) realized −$209 · open +$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$19
sports 29% +$171
weather 8% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -81.6% -83.4% 11% 11% -98.8%
≤90d 52 -33.2% -39.6% 33% 27% -28.7%
all 52 -33.2% -39.6% 33% 27% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 27% -28.7%
10% -45.4% 25% -35.5%
15% -50.6% 17% -41.7%
20% -55.5% 12% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$209
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage32d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Over 5¢ 15¢ $96 $268 +$172 (+178%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 29? May 29 $5 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 27 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $0 $0 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 27 $0 $0 +65%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 24 $1 $0 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 24 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 24 $2 −$1 -50%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 24 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 24 $0 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 23 $0 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 22 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 22 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 22 $4 +$7 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 22 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 22 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 22 $17 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 22 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 22 $13 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $28 −$9 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 22 $19 +$10 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $99 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 25d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 29? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 25d
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 29? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 25d
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on May 29? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $0 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $0 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $0 27d
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 43¢ $0 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $0 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $0 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.85 · official $267.85 (match) · 126 history records