Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:07:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B3 0xb31c…62e7 crypto 362 markets active 2h ago coverage 236d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$524 (-0%) realized −$527 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate66%236W / 124L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$30
14 days+$11
30 days−$1,809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$425
sports 1% −$145
finance 1% +$5
weather 0% +$9
other 0% +$11
world 0% −$53
tech 0% +$3
politics 0% −$5
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -3.6% -12.7% 52% 48% +0.5%
≤30d 45 -4.9% -14.0% 49% 38% -57.0%
≤90d 208 -5.3% -14.3% 59% 25% -11.1%
all 360 -7.0% -15.9% 66% 19% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 19% -10.0%
10% -23.9% 17% -18.6%
15% -31.3% 15% -26.5%
20% -38.0% 12% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$546) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$527
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses236 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)360 / 362
History coverage236d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 73¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $92 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $15 +$5 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $3 +$1 +42%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $1 −$1 -83%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4 −$1 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $14 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $22 +$3 +15%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +315%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $95 +$14 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $91 +$7 +8%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $7 −$3 -42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$7 +365%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $100 −$6 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +109%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $97 +$22 +23%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $157 −$157 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $40 +$2 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $1 +$2 +180%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $21 +$11 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 26? May 29 $1,707 −$1,704 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $4 $0 -3%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $120 +$2 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $15 +$6 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $2 +$2 +113%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 24? May 25 $737 +$41 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? May 24 $1,176 +$48 +4%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $120 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $72 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $8 46h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 73¢ $5 46h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 67¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 38¢ $0 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 42¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 50¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 86¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $2 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 74¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 18¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 48¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down $1 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.09 · official $128.09 (match) · 917 history records