Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:18:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B3 0xb31c…e5a1 crypto 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+4%) realized +$6 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%22W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$92
other 23% +$174
sports 4% −$42
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 33% -11.6%
≤30d 58 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 33% -11.6%
≤90d 58 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 33% -11.6%
all 58 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 33% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 33% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 26% -20.0%
15% -43.3% 17% -27.8%
20% -48.9% 10% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses22 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage6d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 92¢ $30 $69 +$39 (+129%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $65 $67 +$2 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $29 −$13 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$7 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $34 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$16 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $25 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $8 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$2 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $8 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$7 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $94 +$122 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $8 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $12 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $16 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $8 17m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 47m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $13 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.74 · official $167.19 · 216 history records