Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb31d…1dcf crypto 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$229 (-5%) realized −$229 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate56%32W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days−$261
14 days−$261
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$41
other 6% −$210
sports 6% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -83.7% -85.2% 10% 10% -85.6%
≤30d 10 -83.7% -85.2% 10% 10% -85.6%
≤90d 10 -83.7% -85.2% 10% 10% -85.6%
all 57 -19.4% -27.1% 56% 37% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 37% -14.7%
10% -34.1% 26% -22.9%
15% -40.4% 23% -30.3%
20% -46.3% 12% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$41 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$229
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses32 / 25
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage234d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $132 −$30 -23%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $31 −$23 -77%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $102 −$99 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Dec 10 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 10 $20 +$8 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 09 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 04 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Dec 04 $17 +$8 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 04 $36 −$18 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 3AM ET Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Nov 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Nov 04 $9 +$2 +19%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 04 $5 +$4 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Oct 31 $421 −$419 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Oct 31 $2 +$4 +223%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Oct 31 $215 +$19 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 31 $373 +$47 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Oct 31 $234 +$10 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Oct 31 $244 +$129 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Oct 31 $194 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Oct 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Oct 31 $299 +$4 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Oct 29 $200 +$99 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Oct 29 $20 −$19 -94%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - October 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Oct 29 $218 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Oct 28 $205 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Oct 28 $174 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Oct 28 $100 +$37 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Oct 28 $126 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Oct 28 $100 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Oct 28 $93 +$23 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Oct 28 $67 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Oct 28 $38 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Oct 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Oct 28 $120 +$54 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Oct 28 $222 +$12 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $30 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $93 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 28h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 38h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 171d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $20 171d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $18 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $27 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 190d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 190d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 191d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $20 191d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $17 196d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.73 · official $99.73 (match) · 133 history records