Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B3 0xb323…ad5a other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover

Total PnL +$985 (+8%) realized +$1,498 · open −$513

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR16%break-even

Win rate16%4W / 21L

Drawdown71%max

Avg bet$161per market

Trades / day15.5pace

Fees−$13est.

Kalshi-fit8%portable

Net worth$7,396now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$5

14 days−$115

30 days+$108

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +16%

net ROI/market (all)-33.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+2.4%	-7.3%	50%	50%	-7.4%
≤30d	23	-73.8%	-76.3%	13%	13%	-5.1%
≤90d	25	-26.2%	-33.2%	16%	16%	+35.2%
all	25	-26.2%	-33.2%	16%	16%	+35.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.2%	16%	+35.2%
10%	-39.6%	12%	+22.2%
15%	-45.4%	12%	+10.4%
20%	-50.8%	8%	-0.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt +49% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +16% → late -65% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$571 vs −$51 · ×11.1 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage

Net worth$7,396

Realized+$1,498

Unrealized−$513

Win rate (resolved)16%

Wins / losses4 / 21

Est. fees paid−$13

Open positions49

Markets (closed)25 / 74

History coverage32d

Avg bet$161

Trades / day15.5

Drawdown71%

Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 49 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	13¢	$1,158	$1,010	−$148 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	18¢	$699	$738	+$39 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$734	$606	−$128 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$527	$523	−$5 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	11¢	$453	$497	+$45 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$419	$452	+$33 (+8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	11¢	$330	$438	+$108 (+33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$389	$330	−$59 (-15%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$458	$326	−$132 (-29%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$345	$290	−$55 (-16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$287	$250	−$37 (-13%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$153	$235	+$82 (+54%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$189	$217	+$28 (+15%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$157	$146	−$11 (-7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$110	$145	+$35 (+32%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$125	$128	+$3 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$164	$122	−$42 (-25%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	2¢	$67	$113	+$45 (+67%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$140	$112	−$27 (-20%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$92	$110	+$18 (+20%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$115	$103	−$12 (-10%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$156	$90	−$66 (-42%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$85	$67	−$17 (-21%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	1¢	$46	$55	+$9 (+19%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$85	$46	−$39 (-46%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Jun 14	$103	−$15	-14%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele	Jun 14	$102	+$20	+19%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 08	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 07	$104	−$104	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 07	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Jun 07	$103	−$103	-100%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland	Jun 07	$545	+$824	+151%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 07	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 07	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 07	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 07	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 07	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?	Jun 07	$105	−$105	-100%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 06	$12	−$12	-100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 04	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 04	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 03	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Jun 03	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?	Jun 01	$515	+$244	+47%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	May 17	$105	+$1,195	+1142%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	May 16	$103	−$100	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$54	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$54	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$55	1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$54	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$81	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	18¢	$179	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	11¢	$106	1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	25h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$4	25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$24	25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$24	25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$8	27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	17¢	$21	28h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$10	28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$51	28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	10¢	$101	28h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$122	32h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$62	32h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$61	32h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$122	2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	6¢	$122	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$112	2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$113	2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$66	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,396.24 · official $7,397.24 (match) · 557 history records