Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B3 0xb328…71a3 other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$529 (+10%) realized +$528 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%50W / 42L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$107
14 days+$327
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$7
world 22% +$219
sports 16% +$323
politics 3% −$12
crypto 2% −$39
economics 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -10.3% -18.8% 48% 42% -14.1%
≤30d 77 +19.4% +8.0% 56% 49% -1.8%
≤90d 92 +20.2% +8.8% 54% 49% -0.5%
all 92 +20.2% +8.8% 54% 49% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 49% -0.5%
10% -1.6% 43% -10.0%
15% -11.1% 37% -18.7%
20% -19.8% 26% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$23 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$528
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses50 / 42
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)92 / 98
History coverage46d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 39¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $704 +$7 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$24 +93%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $551 +$29 +5%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$5 +36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$15 +148%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $125 −$56 -45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 +$36 +42%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 +$18 +71%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $29 +$11 +38%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$10 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$11 +31%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$9 +37%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $62 +$12 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$19 +188%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $54 −$42 -78%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$201 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$9 -42%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $75 −$4 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$23 +56%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 89¢ $200 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 82¢ $511 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 79¢ $503 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 20h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 20h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $510 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 23h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 85¢ $70 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $29 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 29h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 30h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.73 · official $130.50 (match) · 241 history records