Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb328…de85 politics 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 382d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$3
other 29% −$4
sports 16% −$2
economics 7% $0
culture 6% −$1
crypto 5% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 82 -7.1% -15.9% 12% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 4% -9.7%
10% -24.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -31.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -38.1% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

382d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage382d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $196 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $1 $0 +40%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $95 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $94 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $96 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 14? Jan 15 $94 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $95 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $191 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 31 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 26 $93 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $2 $0 -11%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $82 $0 -0%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $98 $0 +0%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 101m Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $201 −$1 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $1 $0 -20%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $1 $0 -17%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 04 $98 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 02 $166 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $196 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Nov 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 01 $204 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 29 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $98 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 22 $105 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $102 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 10 $204 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $93 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $93 35d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $97 50d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $97 114d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $0 126d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $96 126d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $96 127d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $0 127d
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes $1 129d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 129d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $92 129d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $92 130d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 130d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $96 132d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $96 135d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 138d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 138d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 147d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 147d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 151d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $94 152d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $94 154d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 155d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 156d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 156d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $96 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 160d
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $94 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 389 history records