Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb32a…5d9e crypto 77 markets active 3d ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,649 (+236%) realized +$1,658 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%19W / 53L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$129
14 days+$128
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$1,546
crypto 27% −$21
sports 12% +$120
world 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.2% +9.6% 30% 30% +86.9%
≤30d 16 +107.0% +87.3% 25% 25% +70.6%
≤90d 72 +4.7% -5.3% 26% 22% +252.3%
all 72 +4.7% -5.3% 26% 22% +252.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 22% +252.3%
10% -14.4% 21% +218.6%
15% -22.6% 18% +187.8%
20% -30.2% 15% +159.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +290% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +290% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$5 · ×20.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.51 per $1 lost it wins $7.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$1,658
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses19 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 77
History coverage32d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $27 −$8 (-23%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 +$37 +298%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 −$34 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$124 +404%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 +$30 +56%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $1 +$22 +2056%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$5 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -95%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 18 $36 +$47 +131%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $114 +$1,599 +1403%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $14 −$13 -96%
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $46 −$44 -98%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET May 16 $9 −$9 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 14 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $35 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 10¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win LoL Worlds 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $33 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $55 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 12d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 12d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 12d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 13d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 13d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.17 · official $63.17 (match) · 245 history records