Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb32b…2624 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-14%) realized −$18 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$183now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$44
politics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -29.7% -36.4% 50% 50% -34.0%
≤30d 5 -21.7% -29.1% 60% 40% -29.8%
≤90d 5 -21.7% -29.1% 60% 40% -29.8%
all 5 -21.7% -29.1% 60% 40% -29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 40% -29.8%
10% -35.9% 40% -36.6%
15% -42.1% 40% -42.7%
20% -47.8% 0% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$18 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$183
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage44d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $173 $149 −$24 (-14%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$8 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$8 +42%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $28 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $27 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $19 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $17 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $14 7d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $24 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 23d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 27d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 27d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 44¢ $11 27d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 38¢ $10 44d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.95 · official $182.95 (match) · 66 history records