Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B3 0xb334…dfdc other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$46 (+17%) realized +$20 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$37
sports 13% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +42.2% +28.6% 50% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 8 +42.2% +28.6% 50% 50% +11.2%
≤90d 8 +42.2% +28.6% 50% 50% +11.2%
all 8 +42.2% +28.6% 50% 50% +11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.6% 50% +11.2%
10% +16.3% 50% +0.5%
15% +5.1% 38% -9.2%
20% -5.2% 38% -18.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$17 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $71 $98 +$26 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $45 +$28 +62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $68 +$38 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$42 +584%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $72 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $45 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 22h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 25h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $68 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $49 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.89 · official $97.89 (match) · 14 history records