Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B3 0xb334…9563 politics 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%8W / 146L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$248
politics 34% −$17
sports 7% +$8
crypto 6% −$3
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 122 -0.3% -9.8% 1% 0% -10.2%
all 154 -0.5% -10.0% 5% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -10.1%
10% -18.6% 4% -18.7%
15% -26.4% 4% -26.6%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×3.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses8 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage125d
Avg bet$255
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $250 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $287 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $36 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $203 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $630 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $179 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $315 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 17 $162 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $211 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $810 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $223 $0 -0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 11 $404 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $418 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $187 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $212 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $338 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,315 −$230 -18%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $233 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $238 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $181 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $446 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $161 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $184 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $425 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $669 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $36 10h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $38 10h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 28h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 14d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 18d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $203 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 489 history records