Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
B3 0xb335…3f9a other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 527d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1
sports 24% −$3
politics 24% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 -25.1% -32.2% 0% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -38.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -44.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -50.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage527d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
League of Legends: FURIA vs. FlyQuest Jul 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 16 $365 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 15 $185 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $41 1h
League of Legends: FURIA vs. FlyQuest BUY FURIA 31¢ $2 344d
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 98¢ $189 525d
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 98¢ $190 526d
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 98¢ $175 526d
Will the Texans win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 98¢ $175 526d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $186 526d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $186 527d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 99¢ $185 527d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $185 527d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.56 · official $40.56 (match) · 10 history records