Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B3
0xb338…7a24
weather · 757 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$27 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$748
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses583 / 86
Open positions88
Markets (closed)669 / 757
History coverage33d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day84.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 88 History 669 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$74
14 days−$69
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? No 55¢ 100¢ $16 $29 +$13 (+81%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 14? No 94¢ 100¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 77¢ 88¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? No 68¢ 68¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? No 85¢ 100¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? No 85¢ 100¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? No 82¢ 99¢ $17 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 87¢ 88¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 97¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 72¢ 62¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 14? No 73¢ 72¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? No 86¢ 100¢ $16 $19 +$3 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 79¢ 71¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? No 75¢ 68¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? No 86¢ 84¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? No 67¢ 57¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? No 93¢ 97¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 70¢ 68¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? No 69¢ 60¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? No 81¢ 78¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? No 84¢ 88¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 87¢ 100¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $22 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$9 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$10 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$4 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$5 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 87°F or below on June Jun 12 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 10 $14 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 8m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 9m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $1 25m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $1 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $1 57m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 61¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 63¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -4.0% -13.1% 83% 35% -14.7%
≤30d 579 +0.0% -9.5% 85% 39% -11.7%
≤90d 669 +4.8% -5.1% 87% 40% -9.6%
all 669 +4.8% -5.1% 87% 40% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover84.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 40% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 23% -18.2%
15% -22.5% 11% -26.1%
20% -30.1% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $747.67 · official $747.49 (match) · 3500 history records