Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B3 0xb339…6a14 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$489
other 45% −$1,202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-63.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.8% -63.6% 20% 20% -66.3%
≤30d 5 -59.8% -63.6% 20% 20% -66.3%
≤90d 5 -59.8% -63.6% 20% 20% -66.3%
all 5 -59.8% -63.6% 20% 20% -66.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.6% 20% -66.3%
10% -67.1% 20% -69.5%
15% -70.3% 20% -72.5%
20% -73.2% 20% -75.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$505 vs −$549 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $299 −$292 -98%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1,004 −$994 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $500 +$505 +101%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $485 −$472 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $450 −$438 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $299 25m
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1,004 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $500 5h
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 6¢ $485 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $450 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records