Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb339…5844 crypto 397 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%180W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$265
other 2% −$7
sports 2% +$19
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -18.9% -26.6% 40% 37% -8.5%
≤30d 138 -17.4% -25.3% 39% 35% -18.6%
≤90d 235 -15.9% -23.9% 41% 38% -12.8%
all 397 -8.0% -16.8% 45% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 42% -12.8%
10% -24.7% 37% -21.2%
15% -32.0% 31% -28.8%
20% -38.7% 26% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses180 / 217
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)397 / 397
History coverage163d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 397 Trades
no open positions (169 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $162 +$29 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $35 +$19 +54%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 −$2 -43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $11 +$4 +38%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ assists Jun 15 $2 +$10 +474%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$14 +67%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $3 +$14 +467%
Netherlands to win the second half? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ assists Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Frenkie de Jong: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $4 +$4 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +101%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $6 +$6 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 +$3 +70%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $82 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $17 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $55 14h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $35 17h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 20h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20h
Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $3 20h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 29¢ $3 20h
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $4 20h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals SELL Yes 13¢ $2 20h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $4 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $15 20h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $11 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $37 40h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 59¢ $17 40h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 44h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $1 44h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 997 history records