Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb33d…e103 crypto 1818 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%1134W / 626L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day96.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$234
7 days−$175
14 days−$165
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$171
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 506 -11.2% -19.6% 55% 54% -18.8%
≤30d 1760 +3.7% -6.2% 64% 64% -6.2%
≤90d 1760 +3.7% -6.2% 64% 64% -6.2%
all 1760 +3.7% -6.2% 64% 64% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 64% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 64% -15.2%
15% -23.3% 64% -23.4%
20% -30.9% 46% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1134 / 626
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1760 / 1818
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day96.9
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1760 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3190 history records