Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb342…c4ec sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 381d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$175 (-4%) realized −$146 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%44W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$485
7 days+$485
14 days+$485
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$259
other 23% +$314
crypto 5% +$8
economics 1% −$40
culture 1% +$100
world 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +266.0% +231.2% 100% 100% +128.4%
≤30d 2 +266.0% +231.2% 100% 100% +128.4%
≤90d 35 +24.4% +12.6% 46% 46% -7.9%
all 141 -7.5% -16.3% 31% 30% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 30% -6.4%
10% -24.3% 28% -15.4%
15% -31.6% 26% -23.5%
20% -38.4% 23% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$19 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

381d coverage
Net worth$540
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses44 / 97
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions2
Markets (closed)141 / 143
History coverage381d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 37¢ 38¢ $350 $355 +$5 (+1%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 35¢ 30¢ $218 $185 −$33 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $67 +$309 +462%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $251 +$176 +70%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $41 −$40 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs May 10 $35 +$21 +61%
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha May 10 $10 +$60 +596%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $79 −$78 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 15 $23 −$1 -3%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 15 $16 +$28 +180%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Grou Apr 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $111 −$110 -98%
Valorant: TYLOO vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha Apr 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $35 −$35 -98%
Valorant: Team Secret vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alph Apr 11 $30 +$6 +18%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Apr 11 $60 −$59 -98%
Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Apr 10 $28 −$28 -98%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 10 $20 +$15 +76%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 - Map 2 Winner Apr 10 $36 +$12 +34%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 10 $21 +$24 +114%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Lucknow Super Giants Apr 09 $5 +$36 +710%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 02 $75 −$74 -98%
Valorant: Wolves Esports vs Trace Esports (BO3) - VCT China Group Omeg Apr 02 $27 −$26 -98%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 02 $26 +$12 +48%
Valorant: Fnatic vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 02 $37 +$11 +29%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Delhi Capitals Apr 01 $25 +$21 +86%
Valorant: Nova Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Omega Mar 31 $28 +$9 +32%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Gujarat Titans Mar 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North Amer Mar 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Chennai Super Kings Mar 30 $20 +$14 +72%
Will Kolkata Knight Riders win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Mar 28 $89 −$89 -100%
Valorant: Pigeons vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO3) - VCL North America: Mar 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $5 +$95 +1898%
Will Devon Witherspoon win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $8 −$5 -65%
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nick Emmanwori win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Kickoff Pl Feb 07 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Feb 06 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors? Feb 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Feb 01 $15 −$11 -71%
Will Mike Macdonald win NFL Coach of the Year? Feb 01 $13 −$7 -52%
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playof Jan 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playo Jan 29 $30 −$30 -100%
International ODI: India vs New Zealand (Game 3) Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $357 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 15¢ $20 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $376 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $39 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 40¢ $101 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 40¢ $32 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 40¢ $69 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $399 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $28 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $251 7h
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Fnatic 55¢ $16 36d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 41¢ $41 36d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $56 36d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Fnatic 55¢ $24 36d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $32 36d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $3 36d
Valorant: Team Envy vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha BUY Team Envy 14¢ $10 36d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 56¢ $79 37d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi BUY Lucknow Super Giants 39¢ $20 61d
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha SELL Gentle Mates 58¢ $22 61d
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha BUY Gentle Mates 59¢ $23 61d
Valorant: BBL Esports vs GIANTX (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega BUY BBL Esports 64¢ $30 61d
Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha SELL All Gamers 100¢ $43 61d
Valorant: All Gamers vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Group Alpha BUY All Gamers 35¢ $16 61d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 36¢ $7 62d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 47¢ $19 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.72 · official $539.72 (match) · 328 history records