Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:42:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb343…9106 world 104 markets active 0h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%37W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$10
other 26% $0
sports 12% +$2
politics 11% $0
crypto 4% −$16
economics 2% $0
culture 0% −$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 30 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 74 +30.1% +17.7% 36% 5% -9.4%
all 102 +21.3% +9.7% 36% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.7% 4% -9.7%
10% -0.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -10.3% 2% -26.2%
20% -19.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses37 / 65
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)102 / 104
History coverage289d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $50 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $88 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $17 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $187 +$1 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $81 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $81 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $89 +$2 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $238 −$5 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $80 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $276 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $244 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $90 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $259 +$1 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $66 +$4 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $90 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $104 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $84 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $75 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $6 −$1 -22%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $47 +$8 +16%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $262 +$3 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $68 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $143 −$6 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $79 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $79 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $161 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $77 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $163 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $315 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $46 $0 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $153 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $51 23m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $10 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $39 9h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $49 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $88 40h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $88 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $81 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $73 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $81 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $81 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $39 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $13 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $33 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.78 · official $0.00 (match) · 456 history records