Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb344…8fed crypto 760 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%420W / 340L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day90.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$31
14 days−$381
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$290
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (90 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 396 -10.7% -19.2% 51% 38% -9.9%
≤30d 760 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 44% -11.5%
≤90d 760 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 44% -11.5%
all 760 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 44% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 44% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -20.0%
15% -31.1% 19% -27.7%
20% -37.9% 14% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses420 / 340
Open positions0
Markets (closed)760 / 760
History coverage20d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day90.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 760 Trades
no open positions (171 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2222 history records