Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
B3 0xb349…d14b sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 516d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$2,180 (+18%) realized +$1,559 · open +$621
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$4,552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,836
7 days+$2,159
14 days+$2,159
30 days+$2,159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$540
sports 40% +$2,240
crypto 8% −$969
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +29.8% +17.4% 47% 47% +18.1%
≤30d 32 +29.8% +17.4% 47% 47% +18.1%
≤90d 32 +29.8% +17.4% 47% 47% +18.1%
all 33 +26.0% +14.0% 45% 45% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.0% 45% +3.8%
10% +3.1% 45% -6.1%
15% -6.9% 45% -15.2%
20% -16.0% 45% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$225 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$4,552
Realized+$1,559
Unrealized+$621
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage516d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $2,974 $3,958 +$985 (+33%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $284 $234 −$50 (-18%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 18¢ $285 $184 −$101 (-35%)
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists Yes 18¢ 11¢ $128 $80 −$48 (-37%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ $185 $55 −$130 (-70%)
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 16¢ $75 $40 −$35 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $191 +$129 +67%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $190 +$200 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $193 +$507 +262%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $187 −$184 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $189 −$186 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $234 +$286 +122%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $366 +$385 +105%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $234 −$230 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $503 −$15 -3%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $378 +$762 +202%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $189 +$391 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $186 +$194 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $189 +$275 +146%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $189 +$327 +173%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $186 +$413 +222%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $188 −$47 -25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $187 −$102 -54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $186 −$186 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $480 −$472 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $188 −$185 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $189 +$448 +237%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $189 +$471 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $189 −$185 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $188 −$188 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $518 −$518 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $203 +$262 +129%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $188 +$197 +105%
US national Solana reserve in 2025? Dec 06 $1,000 −$969 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $102 1m
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $46 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $189 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $188 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $77 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $74 1h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $7 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $188 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $193 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $190 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $191 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $63 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $0 8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $123 9h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $189 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $183 21h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $51 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $183 23h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 37¢ $183 23h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 23h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $487 24h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 82¢ $503 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $184 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $183 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,551.77 · official $4,556.87 (match) · 96 history records