Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb34d…45e9 crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-8%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 132d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$218
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -22.2% -29.6% 45% 41% -27.6%
≤30d 22 -22.2% -29.6% 45% 41% -27.6%
≤90d 22 -22.2% -29.6% 45% 41% -27.6%
all 26 -25.4% -32.5% 42% 38% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 38% -29.6%
10% -39.0% 31% -36.3%
15% -44.9% 23% -42.5%
20% -50.3% 8% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage132d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $33 −$12 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$6 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$22 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $83 −$21 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $78 −$3 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$15 -47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$32 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$8 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$24 +155%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $62 +$17 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 11 $61 −$29 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 11 $214 −$42 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 11 $90 −$27 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 11 $52 +$16 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $18 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $24 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $20 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $20 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $25 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $21 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $18 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $21 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $35 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records