Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B3 0xb34d…622a crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate79%11W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$166
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 50% -2.8%
≤30d 14 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 50% -2.8%
≤90d 14 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 50% -2.8%
all 14 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 50% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 50% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 21% -12.1%
15% -21.7% 21% -20.6%
20% -29.4% 14% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$53 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$52
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses11 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 42¢ 94¢ $42 $94 +$52 (+125%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $106 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $68 +$31 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $95 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $93 +$57 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $132 +$68 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $153 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $247 −$147 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $97 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $337 +$53 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $44 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $56 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $27 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.50 · official $94.50 (match) · 123 history records