Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb355…405c crypto 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$358 (-12%) realized −$356 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%78W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$377
other 4% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -31.2% -37.7% 45% 33% -19.0%
≤30d 182 -32.1% -38.6% 43% 34% -28.6%
≤90d 182 -32.1% -38.6% 43% 34% -28.6%
all 182 -32.1% -38.6% 43% 34% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.6% 34% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -44.5% 25% -35.5%
15% -49.8% 16% -41.7%
20% -54.7% 11% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$356
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses78 / 104
Open positions1
Markets (closed)182 / 183
History coverage27d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 76¢ 90¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 68¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $62 −$39 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $37 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$9 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $56 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $206 +$48 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $110 −$25 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $64 −$6 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $92 −$16 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $90 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $85 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $105 −$35 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $35 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 26 $19 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $27 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $39 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.10 · official $16.11 · 790 history records