Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb355…f149 sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,471 (-7%) realized −$2,436 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%80W / 74L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$396
7 days+$709
14 days+$366
30 days−$1,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% −$388
world 25% −$220
other 21% +$674
crypto 12% −$2,341
weather 7% −$234
culture 3% +$117
finance 1% −$100
tech 1% −$83
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +10.8% +0.2% 74% 63% +2.9%
≤30d 46 -18.5% -26.3% 50% 41% -15.1%
≤90d 151 -19.1% -26.8% 52% 41% -15.1%
all 154 -18.0% -25.8% 52% 42% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 42% -15.6%
10% -32.9% 29% -23.7%
15% -39.4% 18% -31.1%
20% -45.4% 13% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$138 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$1,411
Realized−$2,436
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses80 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions8
Markets (closed)154 / 162
History coverage125d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $568 $572 +$5 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $396 $381 −$15 (-4%)
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Yes 47¢ 45¢ $235 $225 −$10 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? No 73¢ 74¢ $147 $149 +$2 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-35%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 21? Yes 51¢ 53¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $162 +$138 +85%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $258 +$75 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $314 −$209 -66%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $647 +$75 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $260 +$37 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $360 +$140 +39%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $436 +$164 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $1,052 +$6 +1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $362 +$254 +70%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $297 +$3 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $172 −$138 -80%
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $245 −$241 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $399 +$101 +25%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $237 +$503 +212%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $98 +$12 +13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $464 −$391 -84%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $609 +$198 +32%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $348 −$343 -98%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $123 −$72 -58%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $444 +$108 +24%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9.5m? May 27 $355 +$145 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $134 +$430 +322%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $275 −$275 -100%
EC Vitória vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5 May 23 $204 −$204 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5 May 23 $318 +$63 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $596 −$596 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $749 +$35 +5%
FC Südtirol vs. SSC Bari: O/U 1.5 May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 22 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 21 $318 −$318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $96 −$84 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $231 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 21 $461 −$458 -99%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 May 21 $1,602 +$427 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 21 $165 −$163 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 21 $287 −$287 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 21 $59 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 21 $174 −$143 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 21 $301 −$295 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 21 $280 +$614 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 21 $238 −$194 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 21 $156 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 21 $403 −$395 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 21 $88 −$88 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 21 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 21 $42 −$40 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $396 29m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 35m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $35 37m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 77¢ $258 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $58 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $43 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $11 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $41 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 17¢ $33 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 14¢ $27 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 12¢ $13 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 18¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 16¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 26¢ $11 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $27 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $7 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $30 1h
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $307 1h
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $154 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $11 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $34 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,411.45 · official $1,417.45 (match) · 1523 history records