Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:23:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B3 0xb358…299d other 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$2
politics 21% −$2
sports 8% +$1
economics 8% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.5% +6.3% 33% 17% -7.5%
≤30d 18 +5.8% -4.3% 17% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 97 +1.6% -8.1% 14% 8% -9.5%
all 101 +1.6% -8.1% 14% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 8% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 8% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 7% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×6.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 87
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage93d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $25 $0 +1%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $140 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $126 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 13 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $67 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $127 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $122 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $64 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $106 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 03 $67 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $123 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $112 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $128 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $113 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 2h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 21h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 25h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 47h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 4d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $28 4d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 9d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 9d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 10d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 26d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.17 · official $56.17 (match) · 268 history records