Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:44:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B3 0xb358…ff63 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$355 (-4%) realized −$355 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$183
14 days+$140
30 days+$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% +$74
sports 13% −$176
other 12% +$69
culture 6% −$210
world 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +7.2% -3.0% 44% 38% +3.6%
≤30d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 30% -1.2%
≤90d 23 -20.8% -28.4% 35% 26% -13.1%
all 33 -19.9% -27.5% 36% 27% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 27% -12.0%
10% -34.5% 21% -20.4%
15% -40.8% 15% -28.1%
20% -46.6% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$36 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$355
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage218d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $201 +$18 +9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $502 +$79 +16%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 $0 -1%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $25 −$1 -2%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$22 +43%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $61 −$4 -7%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $10 +$10 +94%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $40 +$8 +21%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 −$2 -4%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $86 +$29 +33%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $40 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $35 −$21 -59%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $200 +$12 +6%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $61 −$60 -98%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 222.5 Apr 27 $100 −$99 -98%
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie th Mar 23 $510 −$210 -41%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11AM ET Feb 23 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 30? Nov 28 $6,018 +$74 +1%
Kings vs. Nuggets Nov 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5) Nov 18 $50 +$42 +85%
Bulls vs. Nuggets Nov 18 $129 +$176 +137%
Spread: Nuggets (-13.5) Nov 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Nov 18 $50 −$1 -1%
Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) Nov 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $581 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $25 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 63¢ $25 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 62¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 82¢ $75 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $80 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $50 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $15 6h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $25 6h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $27 18h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 19h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 33¢ $11 19h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 94¢ $49 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $30 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $48 21h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 57¢ $30 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 63¢ $49 21h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $135 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 28h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 77¢ $40 28h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records