Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:25:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B3 0xb35c…f2c1 other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized −$13 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$23
sports 7% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 64% -4.0%
≤30d 22 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 64% -4.0%
≤90d 22 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 64% -4.0%
all 22 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 64% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 64% -4.0%
10% -15.6% 55% -13.2%
15% -23.7% 45% -21.6%
20% -31.2% 18% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime? Yes 75¢ 98¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+30%)
France to win the second half? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 36¢ 65¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 22 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$10 +97%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -98%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 21 $15 +$5 +30%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $15 +$15 +99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$4 +39%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +13%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 6m
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 2h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 2h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 17h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 17h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 25h
Spain to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 27h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 27h
Spain to win the second half? BUY Yes 76¢ $15 33h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 33h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 39h
Japan to win the second half? SELL Yes 99¢ $30 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 39h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 40h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 40h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 40h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 40h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 40h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 41h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
United States to score first vs. Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.33 · official $72.23 · 47 history records