Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B3 0xb35f…f003 crypto 702 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-4%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%357W / 337L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$145
other 4% −$10
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -3.1% -12.3% 51% 50% -10.4%
≤30d 131 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 45% -15.1%
≤90d 643 -12.5% -20.9% 52% 45% -16.1%
all 694 -11.9% -20.3% 51% 45% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.3% 45% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 29% -23.3%
15% -34.9% 19% -30.7%
20% -41.3% 14% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses357 / 337
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)694 / 702
History coverage97d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -84%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +95%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +17%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -31%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +75%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -89%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +228%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +58%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$1 +99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +131%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 31m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 31m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $1 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $2 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 21h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.39 · official $8.36 (match) · 2552 history records