Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb361…1581 world 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$3
politics 27% $0
other 16% $0
sports 10% −$8
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 45 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 50 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -10.2%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage524d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $69 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $35 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $55 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $73 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $87 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $52 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $66 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $36 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $33 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $33 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $33 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 27 $3 $0 +3%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 27 $39 $0 +0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Feb 25 $1 $0 -11%
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Jan 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $36 29m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 31h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 32h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $33 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $19 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $17 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $36 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 66¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $36 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $30 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $23 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 180 history records