Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb368…8b96 crypto 67 markets active 3h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$161 (-9%) realized −$158 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%34W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$95
14 days−$95
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$109
crypto 43% −$1
sports 8% +$13
politics 5% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -11.6% -20.0% 56% 44% -3.5%
≤30d 61 -11.6% -20.0% 56% 44% -3.5%
≤90d 61 -11.6% -20.0% 56% 44% -3.5%
all 62 -13.0% -21.3% 55% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 44% -9.0%
10% -28.9% 35% -17.7%
15% -35.7% 26% -25.7%
20% -42.0% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)62 / 67
History coverage241d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $49 $43 −$6 (-13%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +26%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $45 +$12 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$186 -92%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $57 +$99 +174%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $111 +$49 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$7 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $76 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $181 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $100 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 98¢ $100 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 89¢ $40 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.15 · official $92.15 (match) · 209 history records