Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B3 0xb368…202b sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$350 (-3%) realized −$323 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate74%45W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$757
other 17% −$38
world 12% +$27
politics 8% +$93
weather 1% +$40
culture 1% $0
finance 1% +$6
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +3.9% -6.0% 74% 34% -14.2%
≤30d 61 +3.9% -6.0% 74% 34% -14.2%
≤90d 61 +3.9% -6.0% 74% 34% -14.2%
all 61 +3.9% -6.0% 74% 34% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 34% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 28% -22.4%
15% -23.2% 16% -29.9%
20% -30.7% 11% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$163 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$323
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses45 / 16
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage7d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina finish second in Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 88¢ 99¢ $103 $115 +$12 (+12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Atlanta Braves 46¢ 28¢ $184 $110 −$74 (-40%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $85 $99 +$14 (+16%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $56 $47 −$8 (-15%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ $0 $29 +$29 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $293 −$293 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $400 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $193 +$48 +25%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026? Jun 22 $385 +$15 +4%
Plovdiv: Matteo Martineau vs Iliyan Radulov Jun 22 $68 +$7 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut Jun 22 $364 +$36 +10%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $205 +$90 +44%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $221 −$100 -45%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $126 −$126 -100%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m Jun 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 21 $76 −$1 -2%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 21 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $770 −$770 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $132 +$68 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $132 +$68 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $450 +$50 +11%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FI Jun 20 $22 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $726 −$481 -66%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $375 +$125 +33%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $197 −$3 -1%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA Jun 20 $133 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $255 +$255 +100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $19 −$9 -49%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J Jun 20 $205 +$45 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 20 $35 +$10 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 19? Jun 20 $122 +$29 +24%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $390 +$310 +79%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl Jun 20 $64 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $415 −$415 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $192 +$8 +4%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $52 +$48 +92%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $63 +$37 +59%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $349 +$87 +25%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $259 +$41 +16%
Will Bruce Blakeman win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary Jun 19 $206 $0 +0%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $270 +$30 +11%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $322 +$28 +9%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 19 $9 $0 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $38 −$13 -34%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $72 −$15 -21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $360 +$140 +39%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $506 +$27 +5%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $297 +$23 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $150 +$50 +33%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$35 +233%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $186 +$13 +7%
Royan: Gilles Arnaud Bailly vs Cosme de Ravel Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $12 56m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $64 56m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $16 57m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $47 57m
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 46¢ $46 58m
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 82¢ $203 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 91¢ $109 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 81¢ $35 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 81¢ $6 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 91¢ $10 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 91¢ $11 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 70¢ $18 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $32 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $4 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $36 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 71¢ $138 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 57¢ $3 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $64 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $99 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $198 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 54¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $33 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $160 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.54 · official $400.54 (match) · 320 history records