Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:19:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B3 0xb36b…4bc8 crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$19 (-61%) realized −$15 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip

Net edge-74%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-74.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	4	-71.9%	-74.5%	25%	25%	-79.5%
all	4	-71.9%	-74.5%	25%	25%	-79.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-74.5%	25%	-79.5%
10%	-77.0%	0%	-81.5%
15%	-79.2%	0%	-83.2%
20%	-81.2%	0%	-84.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -77% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -72% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized−$15

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage46d

Avg bet$6

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	45¢	8¢	$5	$1	−$4 (-83%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	May 01	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	May 01	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	May 01	$5	+$1	+12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	May 01	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	45¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$5	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$5	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$6	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$5	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$5	45d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.83 (match) · 7 history records